Judging from the past events that have culminated to date, it is now glaring to all who pay attention to political happenings that the game is up for Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Mr. Peter Obi in the race for the presidential Villa this 2023.
Kwankwaso and Peter Obi have failed woefully to get the required momentum for their campaigns especially in the Northern parts of the country that comprises 19 states plus FCT, of the total 36 States from which they must win at least 6 – 8 States assuming anyone of them wins the whole of Southern States which is as impossible as passing a camel through the eye of a needle.
Not even Asiwaju Bola Tinubu the candidate of the ruling APC can win up to 7 states in the whole of Southern states put together, not to talk of Kwankwaso or Obi of smaller parties.
It was Peter Obi who was first shocked by the poor attendance of his really in Lokoja, Kogi state, the Lokoja stadium was visibly empty, that some people said the gathering could pass for a new born baby naming ceremony. Since then Peter Obi has abandoned the whole of Northern Nigeria and is now concentrating his energy on the Southeast where he himself hails from, even though he doesn’t have a single structure there, his Party the Labour Party is unable to field candidates in several legislative positions in the southeast, so Peter Obi is trying hard to eat into the youth demography in the southeast, the challenge is that even if Peter Obi wins the whole southeastern states which is very impossible, it is not enough to make him a President, when even the whole Southern votes cannot take him to Villa.
The whole votes of the 5 southeast states is about 1 million plus above the votes of 3 key states of Kano, Kaduna and Katsina out of 7 states of the Northwest, where Obi has no Councillor, No Rep member, No Senator, No Governor, not even party executives in some of the states. How does he now expect to win?
The Northeast is where Atiku Abubakar comes from, Mr. Peter Obi cannot secure 5% of total votes in any state in the Northeast, the Northeast wants the Presidency desperately just like the Southeast, in-fact the Northeast has never had even a Military Head of State unlike the Southeast that had Nnamdi Azikiwe as Civilian President and Aguiyi Ironsi as Military Head of State at some times.
Peter Obi initially thought he can penetrate some parts of the north central through the churches, reason he kept moving from one church to another but that too is seemingly becoming impossible, as the North seems to have United in one direction. In terms of cohesion and aggregation of political interests, the North knows how to go about it, because of the diversity in the north, be it of tribes, religions or cultures, the north has mastered the art of managing each other, this is why no single tribe or religion can lay claim to ownership of the North, more reason Northerners prefer to be called Nigerians. That was the Point Atiku Abubakar tried to put out at the Arewa House, that was miscommunicated by agents of fake news, Peter Obi has no scintilla of chance to win any state in the North, that puts paid to his Presidential ambitions for 2023.
Like Peter Obi, Kwankwaso too, is faced with a Similar Challenge in the South, the southeast aside having Peter Obi comes from there, also do not see Kwankwaso as Pan Nigerian enough, his party too has no structure in most of the states across the country, like Peter Obi, Kwankwaso will need many more years to build political alliances across the River Niger, unlike Atiku Abubakar who doesn’t only have businesses in the south but is an in-law to the east and west and have large number of people he has worked with from the 3 zones of the South.
Kwankwaso’s NNPP only exists strongly in the sharply divided Kano state, one out of the 36 states plus FCT, with current events Peter Obi might even take the third Position after Atiku and Tinubu take the 1st and 2nd, while Kwankwaso’s NNPP will struggle with the likes of ADP or AA or Sowore’s ADC at number four at the Presidential election.
Kano political bloc is now divided between Kwankwaso’s NNPP, Shekarau’s PDP and Ganduje’s APC at the Gubernatorial level, while at the Presidential level, the battle for Kano is between Atiku and Kwankwaso, Tinubu stand no chance. Not even moving CBN headquarters to Kano can change that that for Tinubu.
Now, where does kwankwaso and Peter Obi hopes to get the votes from? None! It is only common sense that they now only exist just to appear on the ballot or to make news headlines not because they stand any shred of Chance to to come even second in the race.
The 2023 Presidential election is a two horse race between Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Bola Tinubu of the APC.
With the benefit of past history and hindsight based on voting tradition with a transparent election Atiku will defeat Tinubu in 2023 race.
I don’t see any reason why Peter Obi and Kwankwaso cannot go back home to their parties and win together. It is not enough to say I ran for President. It is better to belong to a winning team. After all, it said that, it is better to serve in heaven than to lead in hell.
Kwankwaso and Obi it is time to drop the Mic! If truly the agenda is to salvage Nigeria.