Kamala Harris Leads Trump by 5 Points in New NBC Poll with Six Weeks Until Election Day

Vice President Kamala Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump by five points, according to a new NBC News poll. With just six weeks until Election Day, Harris leads Trump 49% to 44% among registered voters, reversing a 2-point deficit from July when Trump had the edge.

Harris’ favorability has skyrocketed by 16 points since July, marking the largest increase for any political figure in NBC polling since George W. Bush’s post-9/11 popularity boost. This surge comes after a period of intense political change, including President Joe Biden’s exit from the race and two national party conventions.

The poll indicates Harris is now perceived more positively than Trump in key areas, including competence and physical and mental health to serve as president—reversing Trump’s previous lead in these categories. As a majority of voters express concerns about the direction of the country, Harris is seen as the candidate more likely to bring change and guide the nation forward.

“Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor,” noted Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, reflecting on the recent shift in public sentiment.

However, Trump still holds a narrow advantage on economic issues like inflation, although his lead in these areas has shrunk compared to when Biden was the Democratic candidate. Economic concerns remain paramount for voters, with two-thirds of respondents stating that their family’s income is not keeping up with the cost of living.

Trump’s declining support comes partly from Republican voters who aren’t firmly loyal to him, though political analysts suggest these voters could swing back to Trump, as they did in 2016 and 2020.

“They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back,” said Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, pointing to the unpredictable nature of some GOP voters.

Both pollsters agree that the 2024 race resembles the dynamics of 2020, with a deeply divided electorate and the Democratic nominee holding an edge in overall popularity. “All of this movement to Harris essentially returns the race to where it was in 2020,” Horwitt added.

The NBC News poll, conducted from September 13-17, follows a turbulent political season, including an assassination attempt on Trump. In a three-way race that includes third-party candidates, Harris’ lead extends to 6 points, further solidifying her position.

Harris is showing strong support among key demographics, particularly Black voters (85%-7%), young voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), and women (58%-37%). Among independents, she mirrors Biden’s earlier advantage, holding a 43%-35% lead over Trump.