Aso Rock Faces Dilemma Over 2027 Running Mate

Sources within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) say the presidency is facing internal uncertainty over the choice of running mate for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.

Investigations indicate that Aso Rock officials are divided on the best approach, with no public disagreement between President Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima. Sources, however, suggest that Tinubu’s camp resolved more than a year ago not to run alongside Shettima in 2027. The reasons remain unclear, with political and strategic considerations likely influencing the decision. Meanwhile, Shettima appears determined to maintain his position.

Some insiders expressed concern that retaining Shettima could complicate plans for a northern successor in 2031. Even if circumstances require keeping him on the ticket in 2027, the president is reportedly interested in a northern candidate as a potential successor later.

Religious representation on the ticket has also emerged as a key consideration. Analysts note that a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 contributed to protest votes for Labour Party candidate Peter Obi. Efforts to identify a Northern Christian politician to balance the ticket have faced challenges. Discussions with international partners, including the United States, have also highlighted the importance of religious balance in Nigeria’s leadership.

If a northern Christian running mate is chosen, sources suggest former Speaker of the House of Representatives Yakubu Dogara, a Christian from Bauchi State, could be a candidate. However, his minority status in the state may limit his ability to deliver significant votes.

Other potential options include maintaining a northern Muslim on the ticket or selecting Defence Minister Christopher Musa, who is seen as widely respected across the North. Insiders note that Shettima’s strong support among the Kanuri community, and the absence of any documented missteps, makes removing him politically sensitive.

Tensions over the running mate selection have also affected relations between Shettima’s camp and the APC national chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, who has been mentioned as a possible alternative. Despite the party’s consolidation of support from 30 governors, sources say leaders remain cautious in navigating the issue ahead of the primaries.