“Naira Depreciation Has Reduced Japa Rate” – Tinubu’s Aide

The depreciation of the naira has led to a decline in the number of Nigerians migrating abroad, according to Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs (Office of the Vice President). He made this remark on Thursday during a panel discussion at the 2025 Annual Outlook Conference organized by Meristem in Lagos.

Fasua, an economist, explained that the harmonization of segments of the currency market in June 2023 led to the floating of the naira, causing its value to drop sharply. As of September 2024, Bloomberg reported that the naira had lost approximately 70% of its value since the harmonization. The rising cost of relocation, he noted, has discouraged many Nigerians from migrating abroad, a phenomenon popularly referred to as “Japa.”

“The devaluation, or rather, the depreciation of the naira that we’ve seen since our government came in, is double-edged in its impact. On one hand, it has impacted inflation, but on the flip side, it has reduced the ‘Japa’ rate. If before, one could get to the UK with N1.5 million or N2 million for a ticket, now it requires N4 million to N5 million for an economy seat. This means people are thinking less about leaving the country,” he said.

Fasua also addressed the effects of naira devaluation on the economy and the 2025 budget. While acknowledging inflationary pressures, he highlighted the potential benefits, particularly in purchasing power parity (PPP). He argued that although the budget appears small in dollar terms, it can have a greater impact when focused on the local economy.

Advocating for a larger national budget, Fasua compared Nigeria’s budget per capita with other countries. “Nigeria’s budget per capita is one of the smallest in the world. We were only better than DR Congo in 2019, and half of that country is not even under government control. South Africa has about $2,000 per person, Angola $1,200, and Algeria $700. We should aspire to these levels,” he stated.

President Bola Tinubu’s administration has proposed a 2025 budget of N49.7 trillion, themed Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity. The budget focuses on security, infrastructure development, and human capital investment, with a projected revenue of N36.35 trillion. The revenue plan includes enhanced tax collection, customs duties, and independent revenue from government-owned enterprises. Oil revenue projections are based on a crude oil benchmark of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, with an exchange rate assumption of N1,500 per USD.

The government plans to finance the N13.39 trillion fiscal deficit through domestic and external borrowings, as well as public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements. Fasua expressed optimism that by next year, the budget could reach N80 trillion, emphasizing that increased spending is crucial for national development.