Experts Analyze President Tinubu’s Ambitious 2024 Budget Proposal

Economists and financial analysts have scrutinized the 2024 budget estimates presented to the National Assembly by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, expressing a mix of optimism and concerns. The proposed budget, totaling N27.5 trillion, reflects a significant increase of N2.7 trillion compared to the 2023 budget.

While some experts acknowledge the ambition behind the budget, they raise concerns about potential challenges in implementation. President Tinubu’s estimates are based on a variety of assumptions, including a N750 per dollar exchange rate, $77.96 per barrel oil benchmark, 1.78 million barrels per day oil production volume, 3.76% GDP growth rate, and a 21.4% inflation rate.

Notably, security receives a substantial allocation, with N8.7 trillion allocated to capital projects from the N27.5 trillion aggregate expenditure. However, experts emphasize the need for the government to address the rising debt profile, inflation at 27.6%, and the foreign exchange rate at N831.47/$.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) points out that, relative to Nigeria’s GDP size, the proposed budget represents only 12.2%, significantly lower than African peers such as South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, and Ghana.

Professor Adeola Adenikinju of the University of Ibadan believes the budget is not overly ambitious but emphasizes the importance of commitment and dedication for successful implementation. He also suggests monitoring and having contingency plans for unpredictable variables like oil prices.

Funding the budget, according to experts, requires measures to block leakages, cut down on governance costs, and collaboration between monetary and fiscal sides to reduce inflation. They stress the involvement of the private sector and emphasize the importance of revenue generation and efficient expenditure.

In response to concerns about the deficit, Professor of Finance Mufutau Ijaiya suggests looking into the service sector and exploring non-oil products to generate revenue. Analysts agree that loans should be judiciously used for capital projects rather than recurrent expenditure.

The LCCI calls for improved budget performance, particularly in capital expenditure, emphasizing the need to invest in transport infrastructure and build investor confidence. Meanwhile, some experts highlight the pressing issue of rising food prices affecting the daily lives of Nigerians.

In summary, while experts recognize the strategic objectives of the 2024 budget, they emphasize the importance of efficient implementation, addressing economic challenges, and boosting investor confidence to ensure its success.