World Bank Predicts Escalation of Insecurity, Economic Hardship in Six Nigerian States

The World Bank has forecasted a grim outlook for Nigeria, anticipating a worsening combination of persistent insecurity, armed conflict, and economic hardship in six states until May 2024. Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa State are expected to bear the brunt of these challenges, according to the latest ‘Food Security Update’ released by the global financial institution.

The report underscores that poor macroeconomic conditions are impeding access to agricultural inputs across the country, particularly affecting cereal production. The estimated cereal production for the 2023/24 crop year in West and Central Africa is projected to be 76.5 million tons, reflecting a two per cent decrease from the previous season but a three per cent rise from the five-year average.

Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria are anticipated to be the major contributors to this decline. The World Bank attributes the decrease to dry spells during the growing season and insecurity limiting access to cropland in Chad, Mali, and Niger, coupled with poor macroeconomic conditions restricting agricultural inputs in Nigeria.

The ‘Food Security Update’ reveals that certain areas in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger will also experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions due to persistent insecurity, armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods.

In addition to these challenges, the World Bank highlights the global issue of high inflation, particularly affecting low- and middle-income countries. Between August and November, inflation rates higher than 5 per cent were observed in 61.9 per cent of low-income countries, 76.1 per cent of lower-middle-income countries, 50.0 per cent of upper-middle-income countries, and 57.4 per cent of high-income countries. The report indicates that Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia are among the most affected regions.

In November, Nigeria’s headline inflation surged to 28.20 per cent, with food inflation reaching a staggering 32.84 per cent, adding to the country’s economic challenges.

As the nation grapples with these complex issues, the World Bank’s projections paint a sobering picture of the road ahead, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions to address the multifaceted challenges faced by the affected regions.