Economy: Nigeria Set for Fastest Growth in Over a Decade in 2026 — World Bank

Nigeria is projected to record its fastest economic growth in more than ten years, according to the World Bank, which has raised its growth forecast for the country to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.

The revised outlook was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released yesterday. The new projection represents an upward revision of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent forecasts issued in June.

According to the report, Nigeria’s economy expanded by an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, supported largely by growth in the services sector, particularly finance, information and communication technology. A modest recovery in agriculture and Nigeria’s transition to a net exporter of refined petroleum products also contributed to the improvement.

The World Bank expects growth to strengthen further in 2026 and 2027, driven by continued expansion in services, a rebound in agricultural output, and moderate acceleration in non-oil industrial activity. The projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent would mark the strongest performance in over a decade.

The report also noted that ongoing economic reforms, including changes to the tax system and sustained prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity. These measures are projected to improve investor confidence and ease inflationary pressures. In addition, higher oil production is expected to help offset lower global oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and improving Nigeria’s external balance.

Despite the positive outlook, the World Bank warned that maintaining growth momentum will depend on addressing persistent structural challenges. While fiscal rules introduced in 2007 were designed to reduce exposure to oil price volatility, weak institutional capacity has limited their effective enforcement, leading to inconsistent fiscal discipline.

The Bank said current reform efforts are focused on resolving these long-standing constraints to ensure that economic growth is sustainable and broadly shared.

On the global outlook, the World Bank observed that the world economy has shown greater resilience than expected, despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Global growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from earlier estimates.