Why Tinubu Did Not Reinstate Fubara on June 12

Expectations were high across Rivers State on June 12, as many believed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would use the symbolic National Democracy Day to restore Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy Prof. Ngozi Odu, and the suspended state House of Assembly, bringing an end to months of political tension. Instead, the day passed without any such announcement, leaving supporters of the governor disappointed and uncertain.

The political crisis in Rivers had escalated earlier in the year, prompting Tinubu to declare a state of emergency on March 18. This move, aimed at halting the deepening conflict between Fubara and lawmakers loyal to Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, effectively suspended democratic institutions in the state. The President’s intervention temporarily diffused tensions but created a constitutional impasse.

Many observers believed that either May 29—marking two years of the current administration—or June 12, Nigeria’s official Democracy Day, would serve as the ideal opportunity for the President to restore normalcy. Behind the scenes, plans were indeed being drawn up. Sources indicate that meetings in London and Tinubu’s Lagos residence were part of a broader strategy to reinstate Fubara and his administration.

However, word of the reinstatement leaked early, sparking premature celebrations among Fubara’s allies. This, insiders say, angered Wike’s camp, which responded by applying pressure to delay the President’s decision. The move was allegedly meant to ensure that certain political conditions, possibly tied to future allegiances and strategic concessions, were fulfilled before any formal restoration could proceed.

In public statements, Fubara hinted at an imminent return, but his confidence may have worked against him. The political terrain around him has since grown more precarious. Just last week, factional APC Chairman in Rivers, Chief Tony Okocha, declared that even if Fubara joined the APC, he would still face impeachment unless he genuinely reconciled with aggrieved lawmakers.

Sources say one of the proposed conditions from Tinubu’s camp was for Fubara to follow the example of the governors of Delta and Akwa Ibom by defecting from the PDP to the APC. But internal party disagreements and unresolved grievances have stalled that process. Okocha insisted that Fubara must go through a legitimate process if he ever intends to join the APC, and that membership alone would not absolve him of past political “sins.”

Minister Wike also accused Fubara of failing to pursue genuine peace. He said the governor visited him in Abuja once with two Yoruba political leaders to initiate reconciliation, but had since vanished from follow-up discussions. “He has the yam and the knife,” Wike said, implying that Fubara had the tools for peace but lacked the will.

Despite the impasse, Fubara was seen in a seemingly cordial meeting with President Tinubu during the Sallah celebrations at the President’s Bourdillon residence, sparking fresh speculation about a political resolution. However, no formal announcement followed.

Meanwhile, Vice Admiral Ibok-Etteh Ibas, the state’s Sole Administrator, has received directives to conduct local government elections before the emergency rule expires in September. Political watchers say this move is intended to consolidate the state’s power structure under Wike’s influence, ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Wike, who has distanced himself from his party, the PDP, since 2023, has openly declared support for Tinubu’s re-election. But insiders suggest his ambitions may stretch beyond being a campaign manager. He is reportedly eyeing the PDP’s 2027 presidential ticket. However, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State—once an ally—is also believed to be interested, adding further complexity to Wike’s motivations.

Some believe Wike’s endgame is to win the PDP ticket only to step down for Tinubu in a South-South political alliance that would secure a second term for the President. At the same time, former governor Rotimi Amaechi is expected to emerge as a leading opposition figure, possibly uniting rival factions against Tinubu and Wike in 2027.

With the political temperature rising, many in Rivers feel helpless. Activists are silent, protests have faded, and even the state’s elders seem resigned. Unless Tinubu acts decisively and unexpectedly, the emergency rule may persist until local government elections are concluded, leaving Fubara with little to salvage politically.

Still, voices like that of PDP elder statesman Chief Bode George continue to call for the reinstatement of the suspended governor. “In the spirit of my maternal grand uncle Herbert Macaulay, who founded Nigeria’s first political party, I appeal to President Tinubu to end the emergency and bring back Fubara,” he said last week.

For now, the future of democracy in Rivers remains suspended—just like its elected officials.