Who Will Be the Next Pope? Gamblers Bet Big on Top Contenders

As 133 Catholic cardinals gather in the Vatican for the secretive conclave to elect the next pope, gamblers around the world are staking millions of dollars on who will emerge as the 267th pontiff.

American crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has drawn significant attention, with over $21 million placed on the outcome. According to current odds on the platform, Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the frontrunner with a 27% chance, followed closely by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 23%. Other top contenders include Cardinals Matteo Zuppi (11%), Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%), and Peter Erdo (7%).

Kalshi, another U.S.-based betting market, has seen over $8 million in wagers. Its predictions mirror Polymarket’s rankings, giving Parolin a 29% lead, followed by Tagle at 22% and Pizzaballa at 10%.

The intense betting activity underscores public fascination with the papal selection process, despite its deeply secretive and spiritual nature. The conclave began in earnest on Wednesday, but the sight of black smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney signaled no decision had yet been reached.

The election, steeped in centuries of tradition, requires a two-thirds majority for a candidate to be declared pope. Once a consensus is reached, white smoke will rise above the Vatican, announcing to the world that a new spiritual leader for over a billion Catholics has been chosen.

Past elections have proven difficult to predict. In 2013, Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio emerged as Pope Francis, surprising many who had expected Cardinal Angelo Scola to win.