Nigerian Economy Falls Short of Revenue Targets in 2024, Central Bank Report Reveals

A new report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has shown that the Nigerian economy under President Bola Tinubu failed to meet revenue targets in the fourth quarter of 2024. Despite a slight increase in revenue collection, the figures remained significantly below expectations, raising concerns about the country’s fiscal health.

According to the report, federally collected revenue grew by 5.31% compared to the previous quarter but still fell 19.67% short of the benchmark. Similarly, the federal government’s retained revenue improved by 10.40% from the third quarter but remained 48.57% below the target.

On the expenditure side, government spending increased by 2.22% compared to the previous quarter but was still 22.09% lower than the projected quarterly target. As a result, the fiscal deficit narrowed by 3.61% relative to the third quarter but widened by 34.44% when measured against the quarterly target.

The report highlighted that gross federation account earnings improved during the period, driven mainly by increased oil revenue. Provisional receipts stood at ₦7.23 trillion, a 5.31% rise from the previous quarter, but still below the benchmark by 19.67%. Oil revenue, in particular, saw a 53.59% increase to ₦2 trillion. However, this figure remained 62.19% below the quarterly target, underlining Nigeria’s ongoing struggles with oil revenue volatility.

Nigeria has faced persistent challenges in funding its budget, relying heavily on borrowing, which has led to high debt servicing costs. The CBN report also raised concerns about the country’s rising debt burden, noting that by the end of September 2024, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦142.32 trillion, or 51.29% of GDP. This represented a 5.97% increase from the previous debt level, though the country’s debt remained within the 70% threshold for market-access economies.

The report’s findings reinforce concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability as the government continues to grapple with revenue shortfalls and rising debt obligations.