NDC Move, Kwankwaso Biggest Beneficiary Regardless of Election Outcome — Analyst

Political analyst Hassan Ibrahim has said that former Kano State governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso stands to gain the most from his move to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), regardless of how future elections play out.

Speaking in an interview, Ibrahim described the development as a calculated political step that strengthens Kwankwaso’s positioning ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“For me, Kwankwaso joining the NDC is a right move, and I see him as the biggest beneficiary. Whether they succeed in the presidential election or not, he still gains politically,” he said.

He recalled that during earlier discussions with the All Progressives Congress (APC), Kwankwaso insisted on securing either the presidential ticket or the vice-presidential slot as a condition for leaving the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

“Kwankwaso said clearly that if he must leave his party, he must either be made the presidential candidate or the running mate. That was one of the reasons the talks failed,” Ibrahim stated.

The analyst noted that within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kwankwaso would have faced intense competition from key figures including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi.

“With people like Atiku, Obi, and Amaechi in the same platform, Kwankwaso’s chances of getting the presidential ticket are lower compared to others,” he said.

Ibrahim added that regional considerations would also limit Kwankwaso’s prospects in a joint ticket with Atiku, noting that both are from northern Nigeria.

He explained that Kwankwaso would only have a realistic chance of becoming vice president if the presidential ticket goes to a southern candidate such as Obi or Amaechi.

The analyst also raised concerns about internal instability within the ADC, pointing to ongoing court cases challenging the party’s structure.

“Both Kwankwaso and Obi are not fully confident about the ongoing court cases. So they are already thinking of a second option in case things don’t go well,” he said.

Ibrahim argued that the NDC offers Kwankwaso greater control and a more stable platform for political influence, including candidate selection at different levels of government.

He contrasted Kwankwaso’s political structure with that of Atiku, saying the former governor commands a more loyal grassroots movement.

He also noted that Kwankwaso’s influence in Kano has been affected following the exit of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf from his political camp, making a broader national platform more important.

“His chances of getting the presidential ticket in the previous arrangement were almost zero, and even the vice-presidential slot was not guaranteed,” Ibrahim said.

“But now that he has moved to the NDC, he has every opportunity. He has every chance to get a position, either as a flag bearer or as a running mate.”

He further suggested that a successful alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso could create a pathway for future presidential ambition, with Kwankwaso potentially contesting after serving as vice president.

Even if the alliance does not materialise, Ibrahim maintained that Kwankwaso would still benefit from increased national exposure beyond his traditional northern base.