2027 Race Heats Up: Why Buhari’s Kaduna Home Is the New Political Power Hub

As the 2027 presidential race looms on the horizon, Nigeria’s political elite are intensifying efforts to secure the support—or at least the neutrality—of former President Muhammadu Buhari, whose Kaduna residence has become an unlikely epicenter of behind-the-scenes political activity. From both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition, prominent figures are making high-profile visits to the former president in a bid to gain strategic advantage ahead of the next election.

Buhari, long perceived as aloof and withdrawn from partisan affairs since leaving office, has emerged as a renewed power broker. His growing influence was underscored during a recent Sallah visit that brought together an unexpected mix of political heavyweights, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, and former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal. Though officially described as a courtesy call, the visit has been widely interpreted as a tactical move to win Buhari’s favour.

El-Rufai’s cryptic social media post following the visit only added fuel to the speculation, dismissing the political undertones with sarcasm: “It is not about politics. It is about unity and brotherhood…we just prayed and enjoyed lunch with our mentor.” The timing of the visit, which came just days before a similar call by APC governors and hours before a delegation from the APC National Working Committee led by Chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, suggests that the ruling party is increasingly wary of Buhari’s political leanings—especially amid rumours that key figures from Buhari’s CPC bloc are plotting a departure from the APC.

Observers noted that Ganduje’s attempt to downplay Atiku’s visit only highlighted the party’s anxiety. The APC’s overtures are seen as a bid to keep Buhari’s vast northern support base aligned with the party, especially as President Tinubu’s popularity continues to struggle under the weight of economic hardship and insecurity. The optics of Seyi Tinubu’s visit to Buhari during Ramadan further signaled the administration’s effort to mend fences and consolidate support in the North.

Commentators argue that the renewed attention to Buhari is rooted in political fear. According to analyst Shamsudeen Ibrahim, the APC’s recent engagement is “not about brotherhood. It’s about survival.” He described the ruling party’s about-face toward Buhari—after distancing itself from his legacy—as emblematic of Nigeria’s inconsistent power dynamics, where “loyalty is seasonal and perception is paramount.”

Umar Sani, a chieftain of the opposition PDP, believes the Atiku-led coalition sees Buhari as a potential game-changer. With his enduring popularity in the North and his ability to influence the CPC bloc, Buhari could help swing the 2027 vote. “Buhari is still the most popular politician in the North,” said Sani. “Most people are trying to co-opt him so that if he speaks to the sentiments of the people, perhaps they will get an advantage.”

Despite a perceived decline in his political relevance after the 2023 election, Buhari’s mystique remains. His historic ability to garner at least 12 million votes—especially in the North—still holds weight. While President Tinubu’s 2023 win with just over 8 million votes raised questions about the durability of the so-called “12-million bloc,” shifting public sentiment, particularly disillusionment with the current government, is beginning to cast Buhari’s presidency in a more favourable light.

Some analysts, like Dr. Saidu Dukawa of Bayero University Kano, see the visits as a clear signal that the 2027 race is already underway. The strategy of appealing to former presidents, Dukawa said, is about courting credibility and public sentiment in a bid to gain political capital. Dr. Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, noted that while Buhari remains an influential figure, his tendency toward self-preservation may prevent him from fully endorsing any camp. Nevertheless, both the ruling party and the opposition are acutely aware that Buhari’s approval—or lack thereof—could be decisive.

As Nigeria’s political actors make their pilgrimage to Kaduna, the former president sits quietly, observing the parade of old allies and rivals alike. Whether he chooses to play kingmaker or remain above the fray, one thing is clear: in the race to 2027, Buhari’s nod is one prize both sides desperately want.