2027 Elections at Risk? Concerns Grow Over Tinubu’s Search for INEC Chairman

A high-stakes battle is brewing over the future of Nigeria’s electoral process as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reportedly considers replacements for the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu. Yakubu’s tenure ends in November, and behind-the-scenes maneuvering to install a successor is already underway. Sources suggest that some political forces are pushing for a candidate who would be pliant to their interests, raising concerns about the credibility of the 2027 elections.

While there is no confirmation of when the plot to influence the appointment began, reports indicate that Tinubu himself has not been fully drawn into the scheme. However, some of his close allies and powerful insiders at Aso Rock are allegedly orchestrating the move. A former governor from the South-South, who has been active in Nigeria’s political space since 1999, is said to be a key figure in the push.

The credibility of INEC has come under serious scrutiny following the controversies surrounding the 2023 general elections and subsequent off-season polls. A major concern is the attempt to install a new chairman with a history of political compromise. Some of the names being considered have previously served as National Commissioners and Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) but do not have strong records of integrity. Their perceived willingness to conform to political interests rather than uphold electoral transparency has raised alarm bells.

The history of Nigeria’s electoral process is filled with instances where political interference has undermined democracy. Many still recall how the 2003 and 2007 elections were widely condemned for irregularities, leading to former President Umar Musa Yar’Adua admitting that the 2007 election that brought him to power was flawed.

The Nigerian Constitution provides clear guidelines for appointing the INEC Chairman and Commissioners. Section 154(1) and (2) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) mandates the President to consult the Council of State before making such appointments, and the Senate must confirm them. INEC members must also be individuals of unquestionable integrity and must not belong to any political party. However, recent appointments of card-carrying members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to INEC have cast doubt on the commission’s neutrality—a trend that predates the APC government.

The risk of repeating past mistakes is a pressing concern. In 2015, then-President Muhammadu Buhari delayed appointing a substantive INEC chairman after Professor Attahiru Jega’s tenure ended. Instead of allowing the most senior official at INEC, Ambassador Ahmed Wali, to step in, Buhari appointed Amina Bala Zakari, a close associate, sparking controversy. The delay and perceived favoritism led to a crisis of confidence in the electoral process, which persisted into the 2019 and 2023 elections.

Tinubu has a critical opportunity to shape Nigeria’s electoral future. Insiders suggest he understands the importance of credible polls and is wary of the implications of a compromised INEC leadership. His directive to involve National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members in the upcoming census has been interpreted as a move to enhance credibility—a principle that could extend to his choice of a new INEC chairman.

Historically, Nigerian leaders who have overseen credible elections have earned international recognition. Former President Goodluck Jonathan is widely respected for conducting the 2015 elections, which led to a peaceful transition of power. Similarly, General Abdulsalami Abubakar is remembered for successfully transitioning Nigeria to civilian rule in 1999, while Olusegun Obasanjo’s 1979 transition program remains a landmark achievement.

Nigeria’s electoral framework is among the most advanced in Africa, incorporating innovations like biometric voter registration and electronic result transmission. However, implementation remains a challenge, often due to political interference. The contrasting cases of election officials like Mike Igini in Akwa Ibom, who insisted on prosecuting electoral offenders, and Nnenna Oti in Abia, who resisted pressure to announce fraudulent results, highlight the importance of integrity in election management. On the other hand, the actions of the Adamawa REC, who prematurely announced false results, exposed the vulnerabilities within INEC.

Institutional memory is also a crucial factor in maintaining electoral credibility. The removal of Chidi Nwafor as INEC’s Director of ICT is believed to have contributed to the failures of the 2023 elections, particularly the malfunctioning of the results transmission system (IReV). Similarly, the non-reappointment of Professor Okechukwu Ibeanu, who played a key role in preventing election rigging, was seen as a setback for electoral integrity.

The declining voter turnout in Nigeria is a troubling sign. From 39 million voters (69.1%) in 2003, participation has steadily declined, with only 24 million (26.7%) voting in 2023. This trend is driven by voter apathy, logistical failures, election-day violence, and widespread distrust in INEC’s ability to deliver credible elections. The failure of the 2023 elections to fully utilize the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and IReV system further eroded confidence.

To reverse this decline, Nigeria needs electoral reforms beyond just policing malpractice. Strengthening pre-election processes, improving post-election dispute resolution, and ensuring the effective use of BVAS and IReV are critical. Tinubu has the opportunity to build a legacy of electoral integrity by ensuring the appointment of credible election managers who can restore public confidence in the system.

The choice of INEC’s next chairman will shape Nigeria’s democratic trajectory for years to come. If Tinubu prioritizes credibility over political convenience, he could position himself as a leader committed to democratic values. However, if the appointment process is manipulated to serve narrow interests, the 2027 elections could face significant credibility challenges. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Nigeria strengthens its democracy or repeats the mistakes of the past.