Kwankwaso’s Political Future Uncertain as NNPP, Kwankwasiyya Movement Face Defections

The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and its ideological offshoot, the Kwankwasiyya movement, are battling a wave of defections that is threatening their political stability in Kano and beyond. At the centre of this unfolding crisis is the party’s 2023 presidential candidate and national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose political future appears increasingly uncertain.

The latest and perhaps most symbolic loss for the NNPP came with the defection of Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, representing Kano South. Although Sumaila has not officially announced his new party, a recent social media post showing him with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as a meeting with the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, strongly suggests he is on his way to joining the APC. Ganduje had recently boasted that several NNPP lawmakers would soon defect to the ruling party, a claim now gaining credence.

Last Thursday, Ganduje formally hosted a group of defectors from the NNPP and Kwankwasiyya, including Senator Sumaila, House of Representatives members Kabiru Rurum (Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure) and Abdullahi Sani Rogo (Karaye/Rogo), as well as former Secretary to the Kano State Government, Dr Baffa Bichi. Other defectors included former lawmakers Badamasi Ayuba and Sha’aban Sharada, former state assembly member Zubairu Hamza Masu, and two former commissioners, Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas. Except for Sharada, most of the defectors were former key stakeholders of the Kwankwasiyya movement, who cited injustice within the group as the reason for their exit.

Ganduje indicated that a formal reception for the defectors into the APC would be announced soon. The defections follow the suspension of Sumaila and three others from the NNPP in March for alleged anti-party activities, further weakening Kwankwaso’s influence. In the same month, the NNPP lost its only federal lawmaker from Jigawa State, Yusuf Galambi, who also defected to the APC.

These developments have fuelled intense speculation over Kwankwaso’s next political move. Some analysts believe he may rejoin the APC, possibly to position himself for a major role ahead of the 2027 general elections, while others suggest he could align with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). However, any potential return to the APC raises questions about how Kwankwaso would navigate his strained relationship with Ganduje. Reports suggest a strategy under consideration could involve offering Ganduje an ambassadorial appointment to ease tensions and clear the way for Kwankwaso’s reintegration into the ruling party.

Kwankwaso’s political journey has been marked by shifts between parties and alliances. Beginning his career in 1992 under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), he served as a House of Representatives member and Deputy Speaker before being elected governor of Kano State under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, with Ganduje as his deputy. After a stint as Minister of Defence and envoy to Darfur, he reclaimed the Kano governorship in 2011. His relationship with Ganduje deteriorated during Ganduje’s first term as governor, leading Kwankwaso to return to the PDP and later, in 2022, to the NNPP, where he ran for president in 2023.

Following his 2023 presidential bid, Kwankwaso held talks with President Tinubu about joining the government, but the failure to include his name in the ministerial list indicated a breakdown in negotiations. Despite this, Tinubu tasked Ganduje with bringing Kwankwaso back to the APC, a mission that has so far proven complicated due to their rivalry. Ganduje has since declared that Kwankwaso’s return is inevitable, claiming that the NNPP’s collapse leaves him with no viable alternative.

Efforts to obtain a response from Kwankwaso’s camp have been unsuccessful. An anonymous source suggested that the Kwankwasiyya leader is deliberately maintaining silence for strategic reasons. Meanwhile, the NNPP’s Kano State chairman, Hashimu Sulaiman Dungurawa, played down the significance of the defections, asserting that only Senator Sumaila had officially left the party and dismissing claims that the departures would significantly impact the movement.

Close ally and NNPP chieftain, Engineer Buba Galadima, firmly rejected claims that Kwankwaso was planning to return to the APC. He criticised Ganduje’s comments as attempts to stay politically relevant and insisted that Kwankwaso would not compromise his ideals by joining forces with his former deputy. Galadima also ruled out an alliance with Nasir El-Rufai or the SDP, stating that the Kwankwasiyya ideology is fundamentally opposed to such political alignments.

Political analysts believe Kwankwaso now faces a defining moment. Dr Kabiru Sufi of Skyline University notes that whether Kwankwaso stays with the NNPP or defects to another party, both options carry significant risks. Staying means rebuilding lost support networks from scratch, while defecting could alienate both old allies and new potential supporters. Even if he rejoins the APC, reconciling with Ganduje’s faction would not be straightforward and would require convincing his followers of the necessity of such a move.

As the 2027 elections approach, Kwankwaso’s next steps are likely to shape not just his own political career, but the future of the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement itself.