China’s Pet Population to Surpass Children Under 4 by Year-End – Report

China’s urban pet population is expected to outnumber the number of children under four years old by the end of 2024, according to a report from CNN, supported by data from Goldman Sachs. This trend is largely attributed to the country’s rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce, a result of decades under the one-child policy.

A recent study by the YuWa Population Research Institute highlights that China has become one of the most expensive countries in the world to raise a child, surpassing nations like Australia and France. Despite the government’s efforts to reverse the declining birth rate—first by ending the one-child policy in 2016, and then allowing families to have up to three children in 2021—many couples are choosing not to have children.

One such couple is Hansen, 36, and his wife Momo, 35, who live in Beijing. Like many of their peers, they have opted out of starting a family, preferring to live with their six dogs instead.

The growing trend toward pet ownership has driven significant growth in China’s pet industry. A Goldman Sachs report predicts that by 2030, the number of pets in urban China will nearly double the number of children under four nationwide. Pet food sales alone have been growing by 16% annually between 2017 and 2023, reaching $7 billion, and are projected to hit $12 billion by 2030. This shift in consumer behavior reflects changing values among younger generations in China, who increasingly prioritize pets over marriage and family.

“Different generations value things differently,” Hansen said when discussing his and Momo’s decision.

China’s declining birth rate has become a significant concern. The country’s population has fallen for two consecutive years, with the birth rate hitting a record low of 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023, the lowest since the establishment of Communist China in 1949. The birth rate is expected to decline further, with annual drops of 4.2% predicted from 2022 to 2030, largely due to the shrinking population of women aged 20-35 and a growing tendency among younger people to delay or forgo having children altogether.

This drop in birth rates is coupled with rising economic uncertainty, including high youth unemployment and a struggling property market, which further deters couples from starting families. As a result, the Chinese government has shifted its approach, moving from population control measures to offering incentives like cash rewards and extended parental leave to encourage childbearing.

Nevertheless, the surge in pet ownership shows no signs of slowing down, as the younger generation embraces this new family structure, making China’s pet industry one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country.