Warning of Civil War: El-Rufai Cautions Tinubu Against Invading Niger

In a striking statement that got X (formerly Twitter) buzzing, former Governor Nasir El-Rufai has issued a stern warning to President Bola Tinubu, cautioning that any military incursion into Niger by ECOWAS troops could be tantamount to a declaration of civil war against northern Nigeria.

El-Rufai, who had maintained a conspicuous silence amidst recent political developments in Niger and ECOWAS’s responses, broke his silence with a tweeted message on Tuesday morning. Drawing a poignant parallel to the 1970s rock classic “Brothers in Arms” by Dire Straits, he emphasized the deep fraternal ties between nations within the subregion.

“As ECOWAS beats the drums of war, I recall the 1970s rock classic by Dire Straits – ‘Brothers in Arms’, because a war within our subregion is a war between brothers,” El-Rufai articulated.

TUESDAY THOUGHT: As ECOWAS beats the drums of war, I recall the 1970s rock classic by Dire Straits – ‘Brothers in Arms’, because a war within our subregion is a war between brothers. Indeed, the people of Niger Republic are one and the same with those living in Northern Nigeria.…

— Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai (@elrufai) August 22, 2023

He went on to highlight the intricate social fabric binding the people of Niger Republic and those residing in northern Nigeria, asserting that extreme efforts must be exerted to avoid a tragic civil war that could tear apart these brotherly bonds.

El-Rufai’s cautionary message comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions stemming from a rift between himself and Tinubu over a ministerial appointment. These tensions were further exacerbated by ECOWAS’ decision to place its forces on standby for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger, following the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum by his own presidential guards in July.

During an extraordinary summit addressing the socio-political turmoil in the Republic of Niger, held on August 10 in Abuja, ECOWAS President Omar Alieu Touray issued a clear directive for the immediate activation of the ECOWAS standby force, underscoring its mission to reinstate constitutional order in Niger.

President Tinubu, who holds the position of ECOWAS chair, reiterated the urgent significance of resolving the political crisis in Niger. He emphasized that the ongoing turmoil posed a substantial threat not only to Niger Republic but also to the stability of Nigeria and other West African nations.

With the region bracing for the ramifications of this dire warning, the potential implications of a military intervention in Niger loom large, igniting discussions on both sides of the border about the perilous trajectory of the situation.