Rift Deepens in the North as Tinubu’s 2027 Ambition Faces Opposition

Northern Nigeria is experiencing a sharp division over the potential re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027. While some groups within the region are determined to unseat him, others express support, citing gains under his administration.

Findings indicate that core northerners, including various political and socio-cultural groups, are displeased with Tinubu’s governance and are mobilizing to prevent his second term. They argue that his policies have not favored the region and claim his administration has failed to meet expectations in security and economic stability. However, minority groups, particularly from the Middle Belt, southern Kaduna, and indigenous Christian communities, contend that they have benefited more under Tinubu compared to previous administrations.

The division is evident in political discourse, notably between former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and activist-turned-politician Senator Shehu Sani, who frequently debate Tinubu’s northern policies. The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), a key northern political and cultural group, has maintained a neutral stance, stating that it will not endorse or oppose any candidate. Murtala Aliyu, the ACF Secretary General, emphasized that the forum only highlights critical issues for voters to consider in elections.

Meanwhile, the League of Northern Democrats, a coalition comprising members of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), has vowed to back an alternative candidate in 2027. The group’s spokesperson, Ladan Salihu, stated that Tinubu’s administration has led to increased hardship and poverty, making it difficult to justify northern support for his re-election.

The National Coalition of Northern Groups echoed similar sentiments, warning that unless economic conditions improve, Tinubu should not expect support from the North. Jamilu Charanchi, the coalition’s president, stated that northern voters hold the majority and will not hesitate to vote against the incumbent if their concerns are not addressed.

In contrast, the Middle Belt Forum has pledged its support for a southern presidency in 2027, asserting that Tinubu’s administration has provided more political appointments and infrastructural projects to their region than the previous government. Middle Belt leaders point to key appointments, such as Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume and Minister of Humanitarian Affairs Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, as evidence of the administration’s inclusivity.

Similarly, Hausa Christians in northern Nigeria have distanced themselves from efforts to unseat Tinubu, citing improvements in security under his leadership. The group’s National Chairman, Daniel Musa, emphasized the need for inclusivity and urged the President to appoint more representatives from their communities.

In Plateau State, the Plateau Initiative for the Development and Advancement of the Natives has acknowledged Tinubu’s efforts in regional development and expressed willingness to support his re-election if progress continues. The Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU) also praised Tinubu for appointing individuals from Southern Kaduna to key government positions, including Gen. Christopher Musa as Chief of Defence Staff and the establishment of a Federal University in Kachia.

Despite the growing opposition within core northern political circles, Tinubu’s support base remains intact among minority groups who believe his presidency has offered them better representation.