Real Estate Surpasses Oil in Nigeria’s Economy Following GDP Rebasing

Nigeria’s economy has expanded to N372.8 trillion in 2024 (approximately \$145.3 billion at the current exchange rate), with real estate overtaking crude oil as the third-largest contributor, according to newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figures reflect the country’s latest rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), covering the years 2019 to 2024. This marks only the second rebasing exercise since 2014, intended to capture structural changes and emerging sectors in the economy.

The rebased data reveals modest but steady nominal growth over the past five years, rising from N205.09 trillion in 2019 to N372.82 trillion in 2024. The economy recorded a nominal growth of 17.81 percent in 2024. Real GDP growth for the same year stood at 3.38 percent, slightly up from 3.04 percent in 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, real growth slowed to 3.13 percent, down from 3.76 percent in Q4 2024 and 3.86 percent in Q3.

Despite the statistical growth, the daily realities for most Nigerians remain unchanged. Inflation remains high, with headline inflation at 22.22 percent and food inflation at 21.97 percent as of June 2025. Rising costs continue to put pressure on households, and many experts argue that the rebasing exercise offers little immediate relief.

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized that the rebased GDP provides a clearer and more accurate picture of the Nigerian economy. He noted that real estate now ranks as the third-largest sector, surpassing oil. “We have seen some structural changes in the economy; for instance, real estate now occupies the third position, displacing crude oil, which is quite significant,” Yusuf said. He also pointed to growth in telecoms, agriculture, and industry as indicators of a shifting economic landscape.

Before rebasing, agriculture contributed 22.12 percent to GDP and now contributes 26 percent. The industry sector grew from 21.08 percent to 27.7 percent, while services rose from 50.22 percent to 53.09 percent. The informal sector’s share also increased slightly from 41 percent to 42.5 percent.

However, Gbolade Idakolo, CEO of SD & D Capital Management, warned that a higher GDP does not necessarily translate to better living standards. He noted that macroeconomic ratios might adjust, such as the tax-to-GDP ratio, potentially resulting in increased fiscal pressure on citizens already grappling with economic hardship. “The rebasing of the GDP does not guarantee improvement in the standard of living of Nigerians,” he said.

Similarly, Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University highlighted the disconnect between economic figures and everyday realities. While acknowledging that GDP rebasing is a standard statistical procedure that reflects a broader and more diversified economy, he stressed the need for intentional policies that transform economic growth into tangible benefits for the population. “A higher GDP does not automatically translate into improved living conditions. Structural challenges like inflation, unemployment, and insecurity still persist,” he noted.

Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, according to the International Monetary Fund. While the rebased figures may enhance Nigeria’s global economic standing and appeal to investors, experts agree that meaningful development will require translating these numbers into inclusive policies that directly improve the quality of life for its citizens.